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Aug 3rd 2015!⃝Have someone already thought about being his baby? I know he already said that is for a close friend, but let's think about it: Connect the lyrics of 'Small Bump' and 'The Man'.
The last one is about his first love and teenager girlfriend, Alice. They broke up when his career began to take off. That's why he says: "Cos I still love you and I need you by my side if I could, the irony is if my career and music didn't exist, in 6 years yeah you'd probably be my wife with a kid ..."
So, if he wrote this song after (+ - 2011) and before (x - 2014) and those six years may be the time that they are apart, I'm guessing they broke up somewhere between 2006-2008, exactly the year he left home and went to London to pursue his music career.
He was 17 at the time, they were too young, maybe younger when it happened and for sure didn't expect a baby, like he says in the lyrics of Small Bump: "But for now you're a scan of my unmade plans ..."
And that's why I believe that this song is about him and not a close friend or a sister. Idk if this is the true, and I understand the other theories too, but for me that one makes more sense.
